TotalEnergies Orange Basin Update: STMP 2026 Outlook

TotalEnergies has made significant strides in the Orange Basin, particularly with its Venus discovery, which is estimated to hold approximately 2 billion recoverable barrels of oil. The company has submitted an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) in January 2026, paving the way for a Final Investment Decision (FID) expected in Q4 2026. This decision will mark a crucial milestone, as it will signal TotalEnergies' commitment to developing the Venus field, which could lead to substantial production capabilities in the region.

The Orange Basin has gained attention due to its impressive offshore success rate of 87.5% from 2022 to 2026, with 14 out of 16 wells drilled resulting in discoveries. TotalEnergies' focus on this area emphasizes its potential, as the company aims to achieve production targets of 350,000 barrels per day by 2030-2032. These developments not only bolster TotalEnergies' portfolio but also enhance the attractiveness of the surrounding exploration licenses, including Stamper's PEL 107.

Stamper Oil & Gas holds a 32.9% working interest in PEL 107, which is strategically located adjacent to TotalEnergies' Venus discovery. This positioning is advantageous for Stamper, as the success of TotalEnergies in the Orange Basin could significantly de-risk Stamper's assets. The company is currently pursuing a farm-down strategy for PEL 107, aiming to partner with a supermajor while retaining a carried interest of 5-10%.

With the ongoing exploration and appraisal activities in the Orange Basin, the interest in PEL 107 is expected to rise. The farm-down process is vital for Stamper, as it allows the company to minimize its financial exposure while still participating in the potential upside from discoveries in the region. The strategic move to retain a carried interest ensures that Stamper can benefit from any future production without bearing the full costs of exploration and development.

The year 2026 is poised to be a pivotal one for Stamper Oil & Gas, with several key catalysts on the horizon. One of the most significant events will be the FID from TotalEnergies for the Venus project, expected in Q4 2026. This decision will not only confirm the viability of the Venus field but will also likely lead to increased interest and investment in the surrounding areas, including PEL 107.

Additionally, the ongoing farm-down process for PEL 107 will be critical. As supermajors like TotalEnergies and Chevron continue to explore and develop their adjacent licenses, the value of PEL 107 may increase, providing Stamper with opportunities for strategic partnerships. Furthermore, the planned 3D seismic acquisition in PEL 106 will enhance the understanding of the geological features in the area, potentially leading to new discoveries and further validating the potential of PEL 107.

As TotalEnergies moves towards its FID for the Venus field, production timelines are becoming clearer. The first oil from the Venus project is anticipated between 2029 and 2030, which aligns with the broader timeline for oil production in the Orange Basin. This timeline is critical for investors and stakeholders in the region, as it sets the stage for future exploration and development activities.

The successful development of the Venus field will likely have a ripple effect on the surrounding exploration licenses, including those held by Stamper. As production begins, the infrastructure and logistical support established for Venus may also benefit neighboring projects, reducing costs and improving access to markets. This interconnectedness in the region underscores the importance of TotalEnergies' developments for junior players like Stamper, who stand to gain from the increased activity and investment in the area.

To contextualize Stamper Oil & Gas's position in the Orange Basin, it is useful to compare it with Sintana Energy (TSX-V: SEI), which has also experienced significant growth in response to nearby supermajor discoveries. Sintana's market capitalization rose from approximately $27 million to over $200 million as the exploration success of its neighboring supermajors de-risked its acreage. This trajectory serves as a potential benchmark for Stamper as it navigates its own growth opportunities in the Orange Basin.

Stamper's risked net asset value (NAV) is estimated at around $255 million, while its unrisked NAV exceeds $1.5 billion in a full-success scenario. The proximity to TotalEnergies' Venus discovery and the anticipated production timelines position Stamper favorably in the market. As the Orange Basin continues to attract attention from major players, Stamper's strategic assets and management expertise could facilitate similar growth trajectories, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the burgeoning oil exploration landscape in Namibia.